
Abstract
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are widely recognized as major drivers of inter-annual variability of the Indian monsoon (IM) and extreme rainfall events (EREs). We assess the time-varying strength and non-linearity of these linkages using dynamic linear regression and Generalized Additive Models. Our results suggest that IOD has evolved independently of ENSO, with its influence on IM and EREs strengthening in recent decades when compared to ENSO, whose relationship with IM seems to be weakening and more uncertain.
Year of Publication
2015
Journal
Climate Dynamics
Volume
45
Number of Pages
175-184
Date Published
07/2015
ISSN Number
0930-7575, 1432-0894
URL
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-014-2288-0
DOI
10.1007/s00382-014-2288-0
Program
Keywords